Tag: Hillary Clinton 2008

John Amato at Crooks and Liars, who didn't take a position during the primary, tonight makes the case for Hillary as Obama's vice presidential candidate.

Do Biden, Bayh, Kaine or any other pick left standing represent his “change narrative?” No, because Obama is the narrative. He brings the change. He won the primary. Of course there are those that feel much differently. I’m just offering my thoughts. Many of my C&L writers don’t agree with me either. The blogosphere should be the place that we discuss these issues. There are so many undecided voters that I bet many of them are Hillary supporters. In my opinion her nomination would send a jolt of electricity throughout the country and into Denver.

I agree with John that Hillary vastly improves Obama's chances of getting elected because she will bring voters from the critical, not the tiny, swing states like Ohio and Florida. Even Pennsylvania isn't a lock for Obama.

Obama seems to be using his caucus state stratgy from the primaries -- going after little states -- to win the general election, and as I've opined many times, I think it's the wrong strategy. We need Ohio, PA, FL and MI. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia pale by comparison.[More..]

Maybe Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate after all.

Democrat Barack Obama and his former rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton, flew to New York on Wednesday along with his vice presidential searcher Caroline Kennedy.

The flight came on a day in which Obama touched off new speculation about his choice of a running mate by making an unannounced morning stop at the downtown building where another member of his vice presidential search team, Eric Holder, works.

..."I'm not going to tell you," the smiling likely Democratic nominee told reporters when asked who he met and what they discussed as he exited the office building that houses Holder's law firm some two hours and 20 minutes after entering. He had two top aides — campaign manager David Plouffe and chief strategist David Axelrod — at his side.

While I've never been one of those pushing a joint ticket, it seems to me now Hillary on the ticket would vastly improve Obama's chances in the general election. It certainly would get me more enthused about the election.

Unlike Big Tent Democrat, I don't care about a joint ticket with Obama and Hillary. As I said this morning, if Hillary wants it, I think he should offer it to her. If she doesn't, she certainly should not feel obligated to take it just so she brings him more votes.

That said, here are three reasons I think Obama will not offer it to her regardless of what she wants. I don't agree with a single one but I'lll raise them for your reactions:

1. Both racism and sexism are very much alive in this country. He fears there are too many voters who who would never vote for a woman and another set who wouldn't vote for an African-American candidate. He wants time to conduct polling and if the polling shows his campaign would suffer by giving both groups a reason to leave the Democratic party, he won't choose Hillary. [More...]

There are conflicting news reports on whether Barack Obama will declare victory tonight in the presidential nomination.

This morning on Good Morning America, George Stephanapoulus said he will:

"He will declare victory tonight in a moment of history," ABC News' chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulous told "Good Morning America."

Obama, D-Ill., is expected to speak shortly after 10 p.m. Eastern while the votes are still being counted in the final two primary states of Montana and South Dakota....

I think Obama's response will depend on what Hillary does. She will be speaking in New York tonight. While some media reports say she will concede the race, others say she will not and will take another day to make her case to superdelegates that she is more electable in November.

So long as Hillary remains in the race, and Barack Obama does not have 2,118 pledged delegates, I think he will avoid claiming he has won the nomination, giving Hillary the time she needs to make whatever decision she is going to make.

That certainly would be his wisest course.

Real Clear Politics as of 10 pm ET:

• Votes with Michigan and Florida as cast: Hillary leads by Clinton 303,785.

• Votes with Michigan and Florida as cast and the cacus states estimates for WA, IA, ME and NV which didn't keep track: Hillary leads by 193,563.

• Votes with Florida and Michigan, with uncommitted in Michigan going to Obama: Hillary leads by 65,617.

• Obama is only ahead if you give him the uncommitted in Michigan and count the above caucus states, and then it's by 44,605.

More...

Via Politico, the Pew Research Center has a new report, available here, finding 49% of white women and 35% of Democratic white women now have a negative perception of Obama. Politico summarizes:

Forty-nine percent of white women view Obama unfavorably, while only 43 percent hold a favorable opinion. In February, 36 percent of these women viewed Obama unfavorably, while 56 percent had a positive perception of the likely Democratic nominee.

Over the same period, Democratic white women’s negative view of Obama increased from 21 percent to 35 percent, while their positive view decreased from 72 percent to 60 percent — roughly the same rate as white women overall.

For men,

The Idaho primary was last night. In the Feb. 5, caucuses, Barack Obama won 79% of the vote to Hillary's 17%. A total of 21,224 Idahoans participated.

In last night's primary, Obama won 56% to 38%, with 42,000 voting.

Twice as many people voted in the primary as the caucus and Obama got 23% fewer votes.

The same thing happened in Nebraska, Washington and Texas, the other three states that have held both primaries and caucuses.

DaveOinSF at MyDD has a new graphic up showing the trends. [More...]

Barack Obama said today the nomination for President is effectively his to claim on Tuesday or Wednesday. I heard him say it on CNN, here is the Wall St. Journal:

Is the long Democratic primary finally over? Barack Obama says it will be on Tuesday. When asked by reporters if the general election begins on June 3, Obama gave a one-word answer: “Yes.” When asked if he will be the nominee, he said “I hope so. I believe so.”

So, to Obama, the one plus million voters in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana are irrelevant to the outcome. He perpetuates the myth that the nomination is decided solely on the basis of pledged delegates when the superdelegates can consider pledged delegates merely as one factor, also considering the popular vote totals, electability and the electoral map.

There simply is no requirement that superdelegates vote by the pledged delegate total in their districts or state. Obama may not have 2035 or 2210 (or whatever number in between it turns out to be)in pledged delegates by Tuesday. [More...]

Bumped: Yesterday I presented a report by Peniel Cronin on the disparity between the caucuses and primaries this year. (The actual report is here, pdf.)

Today, it's time to examine pledged delegates and remind everyone that pledged delegates are only part of the equation in a superdelegate's decision who to vote for.

Superdelegates were intended to act as brakes on a system run amok. That's what we have here, and it will be further derailed if rumors about only seating half of Florida's delegates are true.

The pledged delegate total is one argument for nomination. It is not a qualifying event. By itself, a majority of pledged delegates is not enough to win the nomination. This year, in particular, the legitimacy of the pledged delegate count is uncertain.

Here is a second graphic and fact-filled, number crunching report (pdf). [More...]

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in association with the Republican media firm Greener and Hook, recently completed a survey of rural voters in 13 battleground states, on behalf of the Center for Rural Strategies. The results:

• Hillary - McCain: tied (46% each)
• McCain - Obama: McCain by 9 (50 - 41%)

The message the Republican pollsters have for Republicans:

The competitiveness reflects the on-going national problems facing the Republican brand, as well as the deep economic anxiety that is particularly acute among rural families on one hand, balanced against doubts about Obama’s values.

Among the key findings:

Barack Obama's liberal supporters are trashing Hillary Clinton in the Washington Post with the most inept comparison yet.

Tom Hayden and other lawyers from the 60's are claimng Hillary has hidden her "radical" ties. What are these ties?

[T]wo retired Bay Area lawyers who knew Clinton in the summer of 1971 when she worked as an intern at a left-wing law firm in Oakland, Calif., that defended communists and Black Panthers.

Stupid Comparison #1: Judging lawyers by the clients they represent. Even more stupid, judging a summer law school intern by the firm's clients.

Stupid Comparison #2: Equating the clients of a law school intern's firm with the supporter of a politican who held a fundraiser and sat on boards with the politician. [More...]

Barack Obama will return to Iowa Tuesday night. The New York Times says it may be to "claim victory" and declare himself the Democratic nominee. His campaign views winning a majority of 2025 pledged and unpledged delegates victory.

Will ignoring the popular vote total in Florida backfire on him? In addition to the 2.3 million who voted in Michigan and Florida, there are 17 million or so Hillary supporters who think those votes should count before we pick a nominee.

A new poll out shows Obama in third place behind McCain and Clinton among rural voters in America. They comprise 23% of the voting public.

Hillary runs even with McCain in the poll but Obama trails McCain by 9 points.

Update: Just wanted to add that the Democratic nomination is not Obama's to claim until one of two things happens: Either Hillary withdraws from the race or all the delegate votes, pledged, unpledged and superdelegate, are counted at the convention.

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